A betting house
You play against the house. It sets the odds and keeps an edge in its favor on every play.
The difference
Against the house, or against the market.
A prediction market
You trade against other people. The price is formed by supply and demand, and reflects the probability the crowd gives each outcome.
The price is the probability. If an outcome trades at 60, the market gives it close to a 60% probability. When the information changes, the price changes.
What it looks like
In three steps, no jargon.
You pick a real question
Who wins the World Cup, whether inflation falls, what happens in an election. Clear questions about the future.
You see the probability
Each outcome has a price that reflects its probability and moves live with the information.
You take a position, if you want
For or against an outcome. And you can exit whenever you want; you are in control.
Real questions
This is what gets predicted.
From the most serious to the most curious. Every question has a probability that moves live.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No91%
Yes9%
Who wins the next election?
Argentina22%
Brazil18%
France16%
Spain14%
Others30%
Example values, not real time. Real probabilities move live on the platform.
18+. Trading on prediction markets involves risk of loss. Polybuk is an information and access tool; it is not a broker or a financial advisor, and gives no recommendations. Trade responsibly. Available according to the regulation of your country.